In a game of high-stakes geopolitical poker, Vladimir Putin has raised the bet by threatening to attack any Western troops in Ukraine. His declaration that such forces would be “legitimate targets” is a bold move designed to force the West to fold on its plan for Kyiv’s postwar security.
The West’s “ante” was a proposal from French President Emmanuel Macron, backed by 26 nations, to deploy a military force to protect Ukraine. This is a hand that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is keen to play. Putin’s raise, however, dramatically increases the risk for all involved.
The Russian leader is betting that the West will not call his bluff, knowing that many key players, like Germany, are unwilling to risk a direct military confrontation. This has already caused some to reconsider their position, leading to a scaling back of the initial, more aggressive proposal.
This dangerous game is being played because the negotiating table is empty. With the peace process stalled and no diplomatic solution in sight, military threats and strategic posturing have become the primary means of communication between Russia and the West.