The stance of the United States on Russia’s energy sector appears to be evolving, moving from one of strict sanctions to one of potential deals and re-engagement. This shift is most evident in the ongoing talks about Exxon Mobil’s return, which contrasts sharply with the US position on India.
Since 2022, the US has led an international effort to isolate Russia’s energy industry through sanctions. This policy led to the exit of major Western companies, including Exxon Mobil, from the country.
Now, a potential reversal is being considered. To incentivize peace in Ukraine, the US is exploring a framework that would allow Exxon Mobil to re-enter the Sakhalin-1 project. This indicates a new willingness to use economic partnership as a diplomatic tool.
This evolution is not being applied universally. India is currently facing a 50% tariff penalty for its continued energy trade with Russia, suggesting that the old policy of strict enforcement still applies to third parties, even as a new, more flexible approach is being developed for direct US-Russia engagement.